Brewers at Dodgers Game 4: Milwaukee One Win From the World Series

Milwaukee is one win from the World Series. The Brewers lead the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-0 in the National League Championship Series, and Game 4 on Thursday night at Dodger Stadium can finish the sweep and send Milwaukee to its first Fall Classic since 1982.

The Brewers won Game 1 by 2-1 and Game 2 by 7-4 in Milwaukee, then took Game 3 by 6-2 at Dodger Stadium on October 14. Jackson Chourio led off Game 3 with a home run, and Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell hit back to back home runs in the seventh inning to stretch the lead. Three games, three different kinds of wins, and now Los Angeles must win four straight or its title defence ends at home.

Game 4 is Thursday, October 15 at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is 8 p.m. ET on FS1. Major League Baseball moved the start up one hour from 9 p.m. ET. Fans on the West Coast get a 5 p.m. local start, and fans in Milwaukee get a prime time game that could end with a pennant celebration on the road.

The matchup on the mound

Los Angeles turns to right hander Tyler Glasnow. He went 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA in the regular season, and he carries a 1.93 ERA in this postseason. The Dodgers need length from him as much as they need zeros. Their bullpen has worked hard in this series, and an early exit in an elimination game would leave manager Dave Roberts with few clean choices.

Milwaukee had not named a starter in most listings before Game 4. Baseball Prospectus listed right hander Dustin May at 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA. Whoever starts for the Brewers, the plan behind him is clear from the first three games: get ahead in counts, keep the ball in the park early, and hand a lead to a bullpen that has held Los Angeles to seven runs in three games.

That run total tells the story of the series. The Dodgers have stars through the lineup, but Milwaukee pitching has kept them from stringing hits together. Los Angeles scored one run in Game 1, four in Game 2, and two in Game 3. No big inning has arrived to change the feel of a game late.

Why Milwaukee is in control

The Brewers have played clean, direct baseball. Chourio set the tone in Game 3 on the first swings of the night, a leadoff home run that quieted Dodger Stadium before many fans had settled. When Los Angeles tried to close the gap, Bauers and Mitchell answered in the seventh with back to back home runs. Those swings turned a tight road game into a 6-2 result and a 3-0 series lead.

Milwaukee also carries history into Thursday. A win sends the Brewers to their first World Series since 1982, a gap of 44 years. That 1982 team played as an American League club. This would be the Brewers' first World Series as a National League team, a first that has waited since the club switched leagues in the late 1990s. Players talk about one game at a time in October. Fans are allowed to think about the bigger line, and Milwaukee fans have waited long enough to think about it out loud.

Los Angeles knows the other side of that history. The Dodgers swept Milwaukee in last year's NLCS. That sweep is part of why this reversal stings. The same matchup, one year later, has flipped, and the Dodgers now face the hardest comeback in the sport.

What Los Angeles must do

Only one team has come back from 3-0 down to win a postseason series: the 2004 Boston Red Sox. That fact gets repeated in every elimination week because it is still true more than two decades later. It also shows the path. Boston did not win four games in one night. It won one close game, then another, and let pressure build on the other side.

For the Dodgers, that means Game 4 only. Glasnow must give them a start that keeps the crowd in the game. The lineup must find the big inning it has missed for three nights. And the defence cannot give Milwaukee extra outs. In a 3-0 hole, small mistakes end seasons.

If Los Angeles wins, Game 5 is Friday, October 16 at Dodger Stadium. If Milwaukee wins, the Brewers can rest, set their rotation, and wait for the World Series. Thursday night will tell whether this series becomes a sweep to remember in Milwaukee or the start of a comeback Los Angeles will need to build one win at a time.

Key numbers

Series: Brewers lead 3-0. Game 1: Brewers 2, Dodgers 1. Game 2: Brewers 7, Dodgers 4. Game 3: Brewers 6, Dodgers 2. Glasnow postseason ERA: 1.93. Years since Milwaukee's last World Series: 44.