JPMorgan Misses Estimates, Goldman Surges on Trading Boom

NEW YORK: The biggest US banks opened earnings season on Tuesday with results that pointed in opposite directions. JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the country, posted a rare miss. Goldman Sachs blew past forecasts on a surge in stock trading. Citigroup beat. Wells Fargo split the difference. By the time the reports landed, the question for investors had shifted from the banks themselves to Wednesday, when the September inflation report and two more bank giants arrive together.

Bitcoin set the overnight tone. It fell below $81,000 in the early hours, then climbed back above $83,000 as Asian chip stocks tumbled and US tech futures slipped. The recovery left crypto roughly where it started the week, waiting on the same inflation number as everyone else.

The bank scoreboard

JPMorgan reported earnings of $5.57 per share, below estimates near $5.90. Revenue came in at about $50 billion, short of the roughly $51.2 billion analysts expected. Fixed income trading brought in $5.4 billion, missing estimates by about $550 million. Costs rose 12 percent over the past year while revenue rose 8 percent, a gap investors watch closely. Net interest income was a bright spot, up 13 percent to $27.1 billion, and the markets and securities services arm grew revenue 13 percent to $11.8 billion.

Chief executive Jamie Dimon said business investment and consumer spending were still fueling the economy. He also warned that large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, high asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical strain were shifting under the surface. In separate remarks reported Tuesday, he warned that financial pain would worsen if interest rates climbed another percentage point. Traders, for now, expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a quarter point in December. JPMorgan shares inched about 1 percent higher in premarket trading despite the miss.

Goldman Sachs told a different story. Net revenue reached $18.68 billion, nearly $2 billion above estimates. Equities trading revenue jumped 72 percent from a year earlier to $6.44 billion, about $1.42 billion more than expected. Citigroup earned $2.85 per share against estimates of $2.66, with revenue of $23.85 billion, just above the $23.72 billion expected. Wells Fargo earned $1.87 per share, a cent or two above forecasts, but revenue of $21.87 billion missed the $22.3 billion mark.

Key numbers

• JPMorgan earnings per share: $5.57, against estimates near $5.90
• Goldman Sachs net revenue: $18.68 billion, nearly $2 billion above estimates
• Goldman equities trading revenue: $6.44 billion, up 72 percent year on year
• Citigroup earnings per share: $2.85, against $2.66 expected
• Wells Fargo revenue: $21.87 billion, against $22.3 billion expected
• Bitcoin: about $83,500 in the latest wire snapshot, up 0.7 percent over 24 hours after dipping below $81,000
• Ether: about $2,513, down 0.9 percent over 24 hours
• Solana: about $107.39, down 2.5 percent over 24 hours
• Cardano: about $0.236, down 4.6 percent over 24 hours, the weakest of the big tokens
• Brent crude: holding near $105 a barrel, keeping fuel costs in the inflation debate

Crypto chopped, then recovered

Bitcoin fell to just under $81,000 shortly before 01:00 UTC, according to CoinDesk, as South Korea's Kospi plunged on chip stock losses and Nasdaq futures fell 0.6 percent. Ether slid toward $2,400 at the low. Both recovered through the morning in Europe and the US premarket. The wire snapshot showed bitcoin at $83,527, up 0.74 percent from the same point a day earlier, ether at $2,513.38, down 0.92 percent, and solana at $107.39, down 2.48 percent. Cardano fell 4.59 percent to $0.2362, the softest reading among the large tokens tracked. The pattern matched stocks: a sharp early scare, then a partial repair, with no clear trend until the inflation data gives traders a reason to move.

Why it matters for ordinary money

Bank earnings are a reading on the household economy, not just on Wall Street. Net interest income shows what banks earn from loans. Credit costs show whether borrowers are falling behind. JPMorgan set aside $2.7 billion for credit losses in figures reported Tuesday, a number that bears on anyone with a card balance or a car loan. If inflation prints hot on Wednesday, the case for a December rate hike hardens, and mortgage rates, card rates and savings yields all feel it within weeks. If it prints soft, the pressure eases. The Goldman trading boom, by contrast, mostly tells you that big clients traded a lot in a nervous quarter. It says less about the price of groceries.

What happens next

Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report on Wednesday, completing the big six. The consumer price index for September lands the same morning before the opening bell. CoinDesk reported forecasts of 3.6 percent headline inflation year on year, with core inflation at 2.5 percent, up from a 3.4 percent headline reading the month before. A number at or below forecast would calm the rate debate. A hotter number would put the December hike at the center of every market conversation, from mortgage desks to crypto exchanges.