Iran Crude Exports Stay at Zero in October Under US Blockade

LONDON: Iran's seaborne crude exports stayed at zero through early October under the US blockade, according to a report from energy intelligence firm Vortexa covered by Reuters on Tuesday, Oct. 13. The flow did not taper off. It stopped. Iran's crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September, down from a 14 day average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of that month, and they were still at zero as of Oct. 5.

The rest of the Gulf tells a different story. Oil flows from the Gulf excluding Iran rose in September to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels, led by a recovery in Saudi exports. Iran is the hole in that recovery. Iranian crude sitting on tankers on the water has fallen to 83 million barrels, and 43 million of those barrels are trapped west of the Strait of Hormuz by the blockade. Iran's liquefied petroleum gas exports fell 48 percent month on month to their lowest since at least January 2023.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made the same point from Washington on Oct. 1, posting that Iran loaded zero crude oil onto tankers in September and that the administration was cutting off the regime's most critical source of revenue. Tanker trackers Kpler and Vortexa both recorded no crude loadings from Iranian ports through September, after August loadings estimated between 220,000 and 255,000 barrels per day.

Why it matters

Oil is Iran's main source of foreign money. A blockade that holds exports at zero for a second straight month is a different thing from sanctions that shave volumes and widen discounts. Sanctions made Iranian oil harder to sell. The blockade, in Vortexa's account, has stopped it from leaving the Gulf at all. Claire Jungman, Vortexa's director of maritime risk and intelligence, put it plainly in the report coverage: the blockade has physically stopped Iranian crude from leaving the Gulf, something years of sanctions never managed.

For oil buyers, the squeeze is softened by two facts. Russian crude has filled much of the gap for China, which no longer needs Iranian barrels as urgently, and Gulf producers outside Iran are shipping again at more than four fifths of pre-war levels. That is why a total halt in Iranian exports has not produced a matching spike in world prices on its own, even with Brent crude holding above 100 dollars for other reasons tied to the wider conflict.

The context

Before the blockade tightened, Iran was still moving real volumes. Loadings ran near 2 million barrels per day in the roughly 40 days before the blockade in reporting based on Kpler data, then fell in steps through the spring and summer. US Central Command has said its forces redirected 125 commercial vessels as of Sept. 30 to enforce the blockade, and that more than a billion barrels of partner crude have moved through Hormuz under US protection while Iran shipped none.

With Iran's barrels stuck, the map of risky oil trade has shifted. Crude from Russia now makes up 80 percent of what Vortexa calls high risk exports from Iran, Russia and Venezuela combined. Those three shipped 4.73 million barrels per day in September, down from 6.39 million in the same month last year. Russian exports, excluding Caspian Pipeline Consortium and KEBCO crude, rose 6 percent month on month to 3.79 million barrels per day.

Iran still has oil on the water. The 83 million barrels already loaded can be drawn down and delivered, much of it toward China. But every delivery without a fresh loading behind it shrinks that stock. Analysts who track the floating storage estimate it buys Tehran months, not years.

What happens next

Watch three numbers. The first is the weekly loading count from Iranian ports, which has to move off zero before anything else changes. The second is the floating stock, falling from 83 million barrels. The third is Gulf flow excluding Iran, already above 81 percent of pre-war levels. If that third number keeps rising while the first stays at zero, the market will keep treating Iran's halt as a Tehran problem, not a world supply crisis. If Gulf flows falter, the same zero will start to move prices everywhere, including at US and Indian pumps.

Key numbers

Iranian seaborne crude exports: zero since the second week of September, still zero as of Oct. 5. Start of September average: 230,000 barrels per day. Iranian crude on the water: 83 million barrels, with 43 million barrels trapped west of Hormuz. Iran LPG exports: down 48 percent month on month, lowest since at least January 2023. Gulf flows excluding Iran: more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September. Russian crude exports: 3.79 million barrels per day, up 6 percent month on month.