India Wholesale Inflation Jumps to 11.39 Percent in September

India's wholesale price inflation rose to 11.39 percent year on year in September 2026, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said on Wednesday, October 14. The reading was up from 9.92 percent in August. It beat the 10.18 percent forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

The figure is the highest under the wholesale price index series introduced in June, which uses 2022-23 as its base year. The data are provisional. The index for all commodities rose to 112.5 in September from 110.8 in August.

Fuel and food drive the rise

Fuel and power drove much of the increase. Inflation in that group climbed to 25.85 percent in September from 22.93 percent in August. Within the group, mineral oils rose 40.02 percent year on year. Crude petroleum and natural gas rose 57.32 percent.

Food prices also rose faster. The wholesale food index rose 8.66 percent, up from 7.05 percent in August. Primary articles inflation rose to 8.67 percent from 7.76 percent. Manufactured products inflation hit a series high of 9.76 percent, up from 8.37 percent.

The ministry named the main drivers as mineral oils, food articles, crude petroleum and natural gas, coal and lignite, basic metals, chemicals, textiles, rubber and plastic products, and electrical equipment. The rise was broad. It was not limited to one category.

Key numbers

• Wholesale price inflation: 11.39 percent in September, up from 9.92 percent in August
• Reuters poll forecast: 10.18 percent
• All commodities index: 112.5 in September, up from 110.8 in August
• Fuel and power inflation: 25.85 percent, up from 22.93 percent
• Mineral oils: up 40.02 percent year on year
• Crude petroleum and natural gas: up 57.32 percent year on year
• Manufactured products inflation: 9.76 percent, a series high, up from 8.37 percent
• Primary articles inflation: 8.67 percent, up from 7.76 percent
• Wholesale food index: up 8.66 percent, up from 7.05 percent

War, oil and the pass-through problem

Wholesale inflation has risen since the start of the fiscal year. The war in West Asia and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushed up crude oil and fertiliser costs. Brent crude stayed above 100 dollars a barrel.

State-run fuel retailers have passed on only part of the higher costs to buyers. That gap matters. If retailers pass on more of the cost, pump prices rise. If they do not, their margins take the hit and pressure stays in the system.

What happens next

Households already face faster price rises at shops. Retail inflation, measured by the consumer price index, hit a 23-month high of 5.54 percent in September, up from 4.83 percent in August.

The Reserve Bank of India monetary policy committee raised benchmark rates last week by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent. Higher wholesale prices raise the risk that firms pass costs to customers in coming months. That would make the central bank task harder.

Anil Gupta, president of the industry body PHDCCI, said the broad-based rise means businesses must watch input costs and pricing closely. Firms that buy fuel, metals, chemicals and food inputs face the sharpest pressure.

Economists will watch whether October brings any relief in crude prices and whether food prices cool after September. For now, the September data show price pressure at the factory gate and the fuel pump, not just at the checkout.