Cook Political Report Shifts 12 House Races Toward Democrats, Projects Up to 240 Seats

Cook Political Report moved twelve House races toward Democrats on Friday, October 30, 2026, and projected that Democrats could win as many as 240 seats in the House. The closing ratings change came four days before the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, and it also moved two Senate races toward Democrats.

Cook now projects that Democrats will flip 12 to 25 seats. If Democrats win the seats they are favored in along with all 18 Toss Up races, they would hold 240 seats. The latest moves forecast more than 218 seats to at least lean Democrat, for a projected Democratic majority of between 227 and 240 seats. Democrats need at least 218 seats for a House majority and need to flip only three seats to regain control.

The House moves

Pennsylvania's 8th District, held by Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, and Ohio's 9th District, held by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Colorado's 5th District, held by Republican Rep. Jeff Crank, Pennsylvania's 1st District, held by Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, and South Carolina's open 1st District moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up.

Florida's 7th and 9th districts and Indiana's 5th District, held by Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz, moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. North Carolina's 5th and 9th districts, New Jersey's 2nd District and Washington's 5th District, all held by Republican incumbents, moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Every one of the twelve House moves went in the direction of Democrats.

The Senate moves and the wider map

Cook also moved Nebraska from Likely Republican to Lean Republican and Florida from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in the Senate. Cook said Democrats now have the potential to win their largest House majority since 2009. That result could surpass the majorities Democrats held after the 2006 and 2018 cycles, though not the 257 seats they held after the 2008 election.

"As the House battleground map has expanded, Democrats now have the potential to win their largest majority since 2009," Cook Political Report said.

Cook House editor Erin Covey pointed to North Carolina as a sign of Republican concern. "Republicans, meanwhile, are deeply concerned about low turnout in North Carolina this cycle now that national GOP groups have stopped contesting the Senate race," Covey said.

What Cook cited

Cook said President Donald Trump's approval rating is underwater even in deep red seats he won comfortably in 2024, and that heavy Republican spending does not appear to be moving the needle. As of October 15, Cook's poll tracker showed Trump with a disapproval rating of 61.2 percent.

Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of capturing the House. The final Cook ratings leave the battleground wide in the last days of the campaign, with Toss Up races in districts that had leaned Republican and with formerly solid Republican seats now rated only likely Republican. Voters decide the outcome on November 3, 2026.