BoE Rate Decision and US Midterms Head a Packed Week for Markets

Markets go into the first week of November with a full calendar and a fresh reason to be nervous. Friday's selloff, led by Intel's worst day since 1974, cut the Nasdaq by 2.86 percent and left investors weighing what the AI spending boom is really worth. The week now brings a likely Bank of England rate rise, a euro zone inflation reading, US midterm elections and earnings from Apple, all inside five days.

Thursday: the Bank of England decides

The Bank of England announces its decision at 12:00 UK time on Thursday, Nov. 5, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Markets expect a rise of 0.25 points in Bank Rate, from 3.75 percent to 4 percent. A Reuters poll of 63 economists taken in mid-October found 54 expecting the rise. The case rests on inflation: UK consumer prices rose 3.5 percent in September, up from 3.1 percent in August and the highest in almost a year. In September the Bank's rate committee voted 6 to 3 to hold, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voting for 4 percent. Thursday's vote split will show how far the rest of the committee has moved.

Wednesday: euro zone inflation

Eurostat publishes its flash estimate of October inflation on Wednesday, Nov. 4. The September reading was 3.8 percent, up from 3.2 percent in August, with core inflation at 2.5 percent. Preliminary German figures showed inflation easing more than expected in October, but one country's print will not settle the argument. The euro zone number will shape expectations for the European Central Bank, which kept rates unchanged in October, as did the Federal Reserve.

The starting point: Friday's close

European shares ended Friday mostly lower. The DAX fell 0.9 percent to 25,818, the CAC 40 finished flat at 7,969 and the FTSE 100 edged up 0.1 percent to 10,730, helped by energy shares with Brent crude at six-month highs above $117 a barrel. One euro cost $1.1172 on Friday morning. Asia had set the tone earlier: the Nikkei 225 fell 2.12 percent to 63,290.11, South Korea's KOSPI fell 3.48 percent to 5,730.74, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.46 percent to 23,294.42.

Tuesday: US midterms and a busy US week

US voters decide all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on Tuesday, Nov. 3, with control of Congress at stake at the end of a campaign fought on the cost of living. For markets the week starts earlier. US futures reopen on Sunday evening, Apple and Palantir report earnings on Monday, Nov. 2, the ISM manufacturing index for October is expected at 54.7 against 54.5 in September, and the September jobs report lands on Friday. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on Oct. 28, with two officials voting for a rise, and traders put roughly a 75 percent chance on a further rise in December.

What it means

Rate expectations have moved fast this autumn. In September, most economists expected the Bank of England to stay on hold for the rest of 2026. Six weeks later, a rise is close to priced in. A rise on Thursday with a split vote keeps a second move in February in play. A hold would knock sterling and gilt yields at the same time. Either way, five days of votes, prints and ballots will set the tone for the rest of November.