ASML Says AI Demand Will Outrun Its Supply in 2027 and 2028

ASML said on Wednesday, Oct. 14 that demand for its chip printing tools is so strong that it cannot fully meet customer orders in 2027 or 2028. The Dutch company raised its full year sales forecast to 44 billion to 45 billion euros. It forecast fourth quarter sales of 14.2 billion to 15.2 billion euros, above the 14.19 billion euros analysts polled by LSEG had expected, with a gross margin near 57 percent.

Chief executive Christophe Fouquet said talks with customers now reach past 2027. The company is seeing heavy order intake for 2028, and some customers want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030. In July the company said it would lift capacity by 30 percent in 2027 and by 30 percent again in 2028. Fouquet said that plan is now not enough, and the company is looking at ways to expand further.

The one supplier nobody can skip

ASML is the world's biggest supplier of chipmaking equipment, and its lithography machines sit at the center of every advanced chip plant. Its customers include TSMC, which makes chips for Nvidia, plus Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Intel. When ASML says demand outruns supply, it is describing the whole AI buildout, not one factory. Every data center plan announced this year needs chips that trace back to its tools.

The company broke ground last month on a large expansion in Eindhoven in the Netherlands. The first phase will not finish until 2029. That gap is the problem. Capacity decided now arrives years later, while orders are being placed for 2029 and 2030 today.

Markets took both sides

In European trade, ASML shares rose 1.8 percent and the technology sector added 0.8 percent, the strongest sector gain of the morning. US listed ASML shares fell about 3 percent in overnight trade, Stocktwits reported, after third quarter revenue narrowly missed Wall Street expectations even as earnings per share beat them. Micron, SanDisk and Intel also slipped. The split reaction says less about demand, which ASML describes as durable, and more about how high expectations had climbed.

What happens next

ASML must find capacity outside the Eindhoven timeline, through suppliers, hiring, or new sites. Chipmakers must decide how much to order now for plants that open late in the decade. The next signal comes from TSMC and the big US chip firms as earnings season rolls on: if their spending plans rise again, ASML's order book for 2029 will fill before this year ends.