Oracle Shares Surge 12 Percent on $225 Billion Revenue Outlook

Oracle shares surged about 12 percent on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, after the company used its financial analyst day in Las Vegas to lay out long-term targets that were stronger than investors had feared. Oracle said it expects revenue above $225 billion in fiscal 2030, above an average analyst expectation of $217.7 billion cited by Barron's. The stock was on track for its biggest one-day gain since April, Morningstar reported.

The forecast that moved the shares most was about cash. Chief financial officer Hilary Maxson told the conference that free cash flow would reach about $30 billion in the year ending May 2029, Bloomberg reported. Analysts had expected free cash flow to stay negative in that period. Oracle said free cash flow turns positive in the second half of fiscal 2028, late in the year ending May 2028, while FactSet-tracked analysts had expected more than $13 billion of negative free cash flow across those two quarters.

A funding cap aimed at worried investors

Oracle also put a ceiling on how much new money it plans to raise. The company said new fundraising through May 2030 would not exceed $20 billion, split evenly between equity and debt, and that vendor financing, hardware supplied by customers and advance customer payments should cut its upfront cash needs. The pledge answers the main worry hanging over the stock. Oracle recorded negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion in the year ending May 2026 after spending $55.7 billion on data centers, and S&P cut its credit rating in July to one notch above junk. Before Wednesday, the shares had fallen about a third this year.

Oracle said it plans to add seven gigawatts of data center capacity over the next couple of years, taking total capacity above 10 gigawatts by the close of fiscal 2028. The buildout serves cloud contracts that include work for OpenAI and other AI customers. Seeking Alpha reported that Oracle also reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 guidance at the analyst day, with earnings expected at $8.10 a share for the rest of that year.

Why it matters

The AI buildout has split investors into two camps. One camp sees contracted demand and rising cloud revenue. The other sees debt, heavy spending and years of negative cash flow. Wednesday's targets spoke directly to the second camp: a date for positive free cash flow, a large cash figure for 2029, and a cap on new fundraising. The share jump shows how much of the recent fall was priced on funding fear rather than on demand.

What comes next

Oracle still has to hit the spending and delivery schedule behind the targets. Investors will watch quarterly cash flow, the pace of data center openings, and whether the company holds the $20 billion fundraising cap as construction peaks.