India Coal Plants: 96 of 191 Run Critically Low on Fuel

Half of India's coal fired power plants are running with critically low fuel, government data showed this week, as hotter weather and weak hydropower push electricity demand far above last year's levels.

The Central Electricity Authority counted 96 plants with critical stocks on Oct 19, out of 191 coal plants in total. A plant counts as critical when its coal on hand covers less than three days of generation. The number stood at 60 in mid September. Total coal stocks at power stations have fallen about 5 percent since the start of October, even after the coal ministry said last week that it had stepped up supplies.

Why it matters

Coal still carries India's power system at peak hours. Daily peak demand this year has run about 45 to 50 gigawatts higher than a year earlier. Hotter than usual weather linked to El Niño has people running cooling for longer, and weaker monsoon rains have cut the water available for hydropower. In September, coal fired generation rose 13.3 percent from a year earlier while hydropower output fell 20 percent. The gap between demand and supply widened in September to 560 million kilowatt hours, the widest since August 2023.

For households and factories, low stocks do not mean the lights go out tomorrow. They mean the system has almost no spare margin. A delayed coal train, a plant breakdown or a hotter week lands directly on supply.

The strain is already visible in Gujarat, India's top industrial state. A state utility, Uttar Gujarat Vij Company Ltd, has texted factories and households asking them to cut electricity use in the evening peak, from 5 p.m. to 11 p.m., and factories have been asked to shift production away from those hours on a voluntary basis. The state has also asked the federal government for extra coal and power. Power ministry data show Gujarat is not alone: Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh are also seeking short term coal power through tenders.

The context

India keeps adding clean power. Nearly 55 percent of generation now comes from non fossil sources, per the data reported with the stock figures. The problem is timing. Solar power fades in the evening, exactly when demand peaks, and India does not yet have enough batteries to store daytime power for the night. That gap pushes the evening load onto coal.

One option the government has set aside for now is forcing plants to import coal. Reports on the shelved plan point to high international prices and a weaker rupee, which make imported fuel expensive. The focus instead is on raising domestic output at Coal India and moving more coal by rail to the plants that need it most.

What happens next

Watch three things. First, whether the count of critical plants keeps rising past 96 or starts to fall as extra coal arrives. Second, whether more states copy Gujarat and ask industry to move work out of the evening peak. Third, the weather: a cooler spell would cut demand faster than any supply measure. Until one of those moves, plant managers are working with less than three days of fuel at half the coal fleet, and every evening peak is a test.

Key numbers

• 96 of 191: coal plants with critical stocks on Oct 19
• Less than 3 days: the fuel cover that counts as critical
• 60: critical plants in mid September
• 45 to 50 GW: how far daily peak demand runs above last year
• 560 million kWh: the September demand and supply gap, the widest since August 2023
• 13.3 percent: rise in coal generation in September, year on year