Trump Diesel Relief Grows Costlier as Prices Stay Near Records

Diesel is the fuel that moves food, freight and farm work in the United States, and its price is stuck near record levels with a midterm election eleven days away. The Trump administration has thrown one measure after another at the problem. A Reuters analysis published on Friday shows the bill for that effort rising fast, while the price at the pump is not falling.

The national average price of diesel rose nearly 10 cents in the latest week to 6.28 dollars a gallon, according to Energy Information Administration figures cited by Reuters, reversing two weeks of declines and sitting near record highs. Regular gasoline averaged 4.29 dollars a gallon on Friday, AAA said, and October is on pace to be the most expensive October for gas on record. An October Reuters and Ipsos poll found nearly 80 percent of Americans blamed President Donald Trump for higher costs.

What the White House has tried

The most direct move was an executive order this month that lets truckers use red dyed diesel, the cheaper fuel normally reserved for off road use such as farm equipment, in highway vehicles. The problem is legal detail. The IRS has not eliminated the federal diesel tax. It has only waived related reporting requirements and penalties through the end of the year. For truck stop operators, that leaves a real risk: sell the fuel the wrong way and the penalties land on them.

David Fialkov, the top lobbyist at NATSO, the trade group for the largest US truck stop operators, told Reuters that members welcome the effort but the guidance remains murky and carries too much risk. He said he does not see the dyed diesel announcements making a meaningful dent in diesel prices.

The second lever is money. Government payments to farmers were already expected to top 47 billion dollars this year, lifted by commodity payments and 12 billion dollars in tariff relief the Agriculture Department distributed earlier this year. A new 8 billion dollar farm relief program, announced at a Kansas rally, would push the total to a record 55.4 billion dollars. The previous high was 45 billion dollars in 2020, when farmers received pandemic aid. National Farmers Union president Rob Larew called the new package the second round of emergency aid this year for losses that were largely foreseeable, and the Agriculture Department has not yet clarified payment timing or how the money will be split.

The third lever is supply. Washington eased select sanctions on Russian diesel, a step that drew bipartisan criticism for possibly helping Moscow's war effort. Trump has defended it as a way to push Vladimir Putin toward peace talks. The administration has also pressed European allies to release emergency stocks, backed by a threat to restrict US diesel exports, which has created friction with those allies.

Why it matters

Diesel prices flow into almost every price a household pays. Trucks move most freight in the United States, and farmers burn diesel through planting and harvest. When diesel stays near record highs, the cost shows up in groceries, deliveries and building materials, not just at the pump. That is why a fuel most voters never buy themselves has become a central election issue in Farm Belt states that Republicans need to hold. Republicans are defending narrow congressional majorities, and the pressure on the White House is sharpest in states where fuel, fertilizer and trade losses are hitting at the same time.

The White House blames high diesel prices on pre existing problems, including years of refinery closures and damage from Russia's war in Ukraine. Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said the president wants diesel prices to fall and has taken historic actions to save farmers, truckers and workers every hard earned penny. Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania, told Reuters he is skeptical there is any short term gain to be had, and said the president tends to discount long term losses against short term gain.

The context

Some of the pressure is not of Washington's making. Oil prices are being driven by war: Brent crude traded above 114 dollars a barrel this week after attacks on Saudi energy sites and fighting around the Strait of Hormuz tightened supply fears. But farm groups say part of the damage at home is linked to the administration's own trade and foreign policies, including tariffs that raised costs and cut export sales. The relief payments, in that reading, are tax money compensating producers for harm that policy helped create.

What happens next

Three dates decide whether any of this works before voters do. The IRS could still clarify the red diesel rules, which would tell truck stops whether the program is usable at all. The Agriculture Department owes farmers the details of the 8 billion dollar package. And the November 3 midterms will judge the whole effort. If diesel is still near 6.28 dollars when ballots are cast, the administration will have spent record sums without moving the number voters see.

Key numbers

• Diesel: 6.28 dollars a gallon, up nearly 10 cents in the latest week
• Gasoline: 4.29 dollars a gallon national average, AAA
• Farm payments: heading to a record 55.4 billion dollars with the new package
• Previous record: 45 billion dollars in 2020
• Poll: nearly 80 percent of Americans blame Trump for higher costs, Reuters and Ipsos