Texas Senate Race Tightens: Talarico 47, Paxton 45 in Marist Poll

Updated 14:45 UTC, October 15: Talarico reports a record $64 million quarter

James Talarico raised $64 million from July through September, his campaign said on Thursday, October 15. Politico, which first reported the figures, called it the largest third quarter haul of any Senate candidate in history. The quarter took his total since launching in September 2025 to more than $134.3 million, from more than 1.3 million donors. His campaign said about 97 percent of the donations were $100 or less.

Ken Paxton raised about $18 million in the same quarter, according to reports of the filings, less than a third of his rival's total. The money has not settled the race. Talarico led by an average of 2.6 points in the RealClearPolling average on Thursday, close to the Marist result below. Third quarter reports were due at the Federal Election Commission on October 15. Early voting opens on October 19.

Texas has a Senate race that neither party can call. A Marist poll released on October 14 puts Democrat James Talarico at 47 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 45 percent among likely voters, a two point gap inside the poll's margin of error, five days before early voting begins.

The survey of 1,196 registered voters was conducted from October 8 to October 11. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 points for registered voters and 4.9 points for likely voters. Among registered voters, Talarico leads by four points, 48 to 44. That is down from a six point lead in Marist's September poll, which means Paxton has closed ground even as he still trails.

Independents are breaking for Talarico

The sharpest split in the poll sits with independents. Among likely independent voters, 52 percent back Talarico and 30 percent back Paxton. Both bases are locked in. The contest now runs through a small pool of undecided voters: 2 percent of likely voters chose another candidate and 4 percent said they are undecided.

Expectations tell a different story from intentions. A majority of likely voters, 53 percent, say they think Paxton will win the seat no matter whom they support. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in decades, and voters appear to be pricing that history into their forecasts even while telling pollsters they lean the other way.

The governor's race moves the other way

The same poll brought better news for Republicans one line down the ballot. Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49 to 45 among likely voters. Among registered voters the gap is a single point. In Marist's September survey, Hinojosa led Abbott by three points among registered voters, so the governor's race has shifted toward the incumbent while the Senate race has stayed close. Seven in ten likely voters say they expect Abbott to win.

Why it matters

Texas is the largest prize on the 2026 Senate map that Democrats did not expect to contest this seriously. A seat that Republicans planned to defend cheaply is now drawing real money and real attention from both parties, and a Talarico win would reshape the fight for the Senate majority. Paxton's team can point to the trend line: he has cut the registered voter gap from six points to four in a month. Talarico's team can point to the scoreboard: he has led in most public polls released in October.

Other surveys agree the race is close but split on the leader. A University of Texas and Texas Politics Project poll released October 13 put Talarico ahead 50 to 47. A UMass Lowell poll released October 8 had the two men tied at 45 percent each.

What happens next

Early voting opens on October 19 and Election Day is November 3. Both campaigns now have two weeks to turn a statistical tie into turnout. The undecided share is small, so the race will likely be decided by which side gets its leaners to the polls in the state's biggest metro areas, and by whether late deciders break the way independents already have.