Kilauea, Hawaii: USGS Pushes Next Lava Fountain Window to November 2 to 9

Kilauea's summit eruption stayed paused on Saturday, October 31, and the U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said the next burst of lava fountaining, episode 56, is most likely to begin between November 2 and 9, 2026.

The observatory pushed the window back in its daily update on Friday, October 30. An earlier forecast had put episode 56 between November 1 and 7. Slow, steady inflation continues at the summit, and the observatory said the new window rests on current deformation trends and on the assumption that magma chamber inflation follows patterns similar to those of previous episodes.

A short, tall episode 55

Episode 55 began at 3:19 a.m. Hawaii time on October 17 and ended abruptly at 9:03 a.m. the same day. Lava fountained 720 feet into the air from the north vent inside Halemaumau crater, Fox Weather reported. The episode lasted only a few hours.

It also ended an unusually long quiet stretch. Kilauea had been inactive for about two months between episode 54 on August 25 and episode 55 on October 17. The current eruption pattern began on December 23, 2024, and its episodes have since arrived on a semiregular basis.

Why the date keeps moving

Fox Weather reported on Saturday that a precise forecast is not possible because of how differently the buildup to episode 55 unfolded. Tiltmeters at the summit recorded positive tilt beyond the levels typically seen before fountaining, a sign that the summit magma chamber kept pressurizing.

The south vent has stayed dark since episode 55, when it was buried. Four small earthquakes of magnitude 1.5 or weaker were recorded in and around Kaluapele, the summit caldera.

How the forecasts are made

The forecasts rest on ground tilt. As magma refills the reservoir beneath Halemaumau, the summit swells, and tiltmeters record the change. Observatory scientists have published forecast windows since episode 5 in January 2025, working from how much tilt each episode drops and how fast the summit gains it back during the pause. The unusual buildup before episode 55 is why this window has moved more than most.

Alert level unchanged

Kilauea's volcano alert level and its aviation color code remain at ADVISORY and YELLOW. The observatory said it continues to monitor the volcano and stays in contact with Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and the Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.

If the forecast holds, the next fountain could rise over Halemaumau sometime in the first full week of November, and the observatory will narrow the window as the summit keeps swelling.