Hurricane Vance Nears Major Strength Off Mexico's Pacific Coast at 110 mph

Hurricane Vance sat close to major hurricane strength off Mexico's Pacific coast early on Saturday, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in Advisory Number 11, issued at 03:00 UTC. The centre was at 12.0 degrees north and 102.6 degrees west, about 385 miles south-southwest of Acapulco and 495 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, moving north-northwest at 7 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 965 millibars.

Major hurricane strength starts at 111 mph, so Vance was one step below that line at the advisory time. The hurricane centre said some additional strengthening was possible overnight, and its forecast table pointed to winds of 120 mph by 12:00 UTC on Saturday. Gradual weakening was then forecast to begin later on Saturday. USA Today reported that the track forecast remained uncertain, and that the current forecast had Vance about 100 miles south of Manzanillo on October 28, with winds of 85 mph.

No coastal watches or warnings

There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect, and the hurricane centre told people along the southwestern coast of Mexico to keep watching the storm. Hurricane force winds extended up to 35 miles from the centre, and tropical storm force winds reached out as far as 205 miles. The Associated Press reported that the storm's outer bands were already sending gale force winds and rough seas into Mexico's Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The main danger for land this weekend is the water, not a direct hit. Swells from Vance were expected to start reaching the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and to continue into next week. The hurricane centre said those swells were likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions, and it told people to follow local weather office advice.

Three days from tropical storm to the edge of Category 3

Vance formed as a tropical storm on October 21. It was the 23rd named storm of the 2026 season in the northeast Pacific, USA Today reported, and Fox Weather said it was the first storm with a name starting with V in the eastern Pacific since 2018. Vance became a hurricane early on Friday, October 23. In a 9 a.m. Central Time update that day, the hurricane centre put its winds at 90 mph, about 455 miles south-southwest of Acapulco.

The strengthening was fast. The Watchers, using hurricane centre data, reported that Vance's winds rose from 60 mph at 15:00 UTC on October 22 to 90 mph at the same time on October 23, while its pressure fell from 997 to 979 millibars. By Friday's later advisories it had reached Category 2 strength at 110 mph, the Associated Press reported.

A Pacific season that keeps producing major storms

If Vance crosses the major hurricane line, it will be the seventh major hurricane in a row this year in the Pacific, following Nolo, Odalys, Polo, Rachel, Simon and Trudy, the Associated Press reported. The agency described an intense Pacific season, with storms forming in quick succession near Hawaii and Mexico as El Nino conditions, made worse by global warming, shaped the regional weather.

USA Today also noted that Vance was the 13th hurricane in the Pacific basin this year. Earlier storms this season brought heavy rain and flooding to parts of Mexico. For Mexico's Pacific coast, the immediate task is simpler: watch Vance through Saturday, and stay out of the surf it sends ashore.