Hurricane Trudy Forms off Mexico, Forecast to Hit Major Strength by Friday

Trudy strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane early on Thursday, October 15, the United States National Hurricane Center said in its 09:00 UTC advisory. The storm is forecast to grow fast and reach the coast of southwestern Mexico as a major hurricane this weekend.

At the advisory, Trudy sat about 300 miles, or 480 kilometres, south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, and about 460 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo. Maximum sustained winds were 75 miles per hour, or 120 kilometres per hour, with higher gusts. The centre put the minimum pressure at 989 millibars.

The forecast track

Trudy was moving northwest at about 9 miles per hour. Forecasters expect a turn to the north-northwest in the next day or two, then a turn back to the northwest this weekend. On that track the storm approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico over the weekend.

No coastal watches or warnings were in effect at the time of the advisory. The centre said watches would likely be needed later on Thursday morning for parts of that coast, and told people there to follow the storm closely.

Rapid strengthening ahead

The centre forecasts rapid strengthening over the next couple of days, with Trudy becoming a major hurricane on Friday, October 16. Hurricane force winds extend about 25 miles from the centre, and tropical storm force winds reach about 115 miles out.

Rain is the near term danger. The centre expects 4 to 8 inches of rain through the weekend across Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 12 inches. Outer bands should bring 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals near 6 inches, along the coast from Guerrero to Michoacan. Forecasters warned the rain could bring flooding and mudslides, above all on steep ground.

Swells from Trudy should reach parts of the southwestern coast in the next day or so, with a risk of dangerous surf and rip currents.

A coast still recovering

Guerrero state suspended schools statewide for Thursday, October 15 and switched on emergency preparations, with heavier rain a concern on Friday and Saturday, state civil protection reporting said.

The new storm reaches a coast that is still clearing up from the last one. Flooding tied to Hurricane Simon and the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel killed six people in Mexico earlier this week, five of them in Ensenada, Baja California, and one in Guerrero. Roads around Puerto Vallarta, which closed in that storm, had reopened by October 13.

Trudy formed in the Pacific on October 13 as a tropical depression, then became a tropical storm the same day at 40 miles per hour, about 490 miles south-southeast of Acapulco. Two days later it is a hurricane, and the centre expects it to keep growing before it nears land.