Hormuz oil flows fall as ship attacks hit record 12

Update: October is now the worst month on record for ship attacks

Updated 16:54 UTC, Oct. 23, 2026. October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, Reuters reported on Friday, October 23, 2026. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which has tracked maritime security incidents worldwide since 2017, has recorded 28 confirmed and reported attacks in the strait and surrounding waterways in October, and 113 since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, 2026. Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the institute, said October has seen the highest number of ship attacks on record.

The tally broadly matches data from the International Maritime Organization, which has recorded 120 incidents in the strait and the wider Middle East since the conflict began. The IMO lists more than 30 supertankers, or Very Large Crude Carriers, damaged in the attacks, including 11 in October alone. Each such tanker can carry about 2 million barrels of crude, and the damaged ships account for about 3.5 percent of a global supertanker fleet of more than 900. The Associated Press reported that Lloyd's List Intelligence also counted 28 attacks in October, the highest since the start of the war, and that tankers are still moving through the strait at night in a US-protected lane near the coast of Oman.

The Greek consultancy Marisks said October 2026 is the most intense period of maritime attacks in and around the strait since the escalation of hostilities in March, and that a dozen ships were attacked between October 5 and October 11, the highest weekly number since the conflict began. UK Maritime Trade Operations has recorded 135 incidents related to the conflict as of October 16 and says gaps in voluntary reporting by shippers mean the full picture is still not captured. Reuters reported that more tankers came under attack as owners grew more willing to load cargoes inside the Gulf, drawn by daily freight rates above 1 million dollars and steeper discounts from regional producers.

Reported attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz reached a record 12 last week, according to figures from UK Maritime Trade Operations cited by Reuters on October 19, 2026. The real number may be higher. UKMTO says it is struggling to keep count, and most attacked vessels are refusing to report incidents.

The shipping data shows the cost. Oil exports through the strait have fallen from a peak of 17 million barrels per day in early October to around 11 million barrels per day in recent days, according to data from Kpler. In the seven days through October 13, 2026, flows averaged 11.6 million barrels per day, about 68 percent of the 17.1 million barrel baseline.

A chokepoint the world cannot skip

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which a large share of the world's traded oil must pass. When tankers slow down, turn back, or wait for safer windows, the effect shows up fast in prices and in refinery planning.

Brent crude hit a five month high above 109 dollars a barrel on Friday, October 16, 2026, then slipped on Monday, October 19, 2026. Traders are weighing the risk of a longer disruption against signs that ships are still moving and cargoes are still getting through, just fewer of them and at higher cost.

Asian buyers feel it first

Asian refiners buy most of the oil shipped from the Middle East, so the squeeze lands on them first. Soaring shipping costs are cutting into their refining margins. Insurance and freight rates for the route have climbed as owners weigh the danger to crews and hulls.

Crews still sail the strait despite the risk. That matters for supply: the route has not closed, and a full shutdown would be a far bigger shock than the current slowdown. But each unreported attack makes the risk harder to price, and ship owners are making decisions with incomplete information.

Politics in the background

The timing adds pressure. Reuters notes that Israel holds a parliamentary vote in eight days and the United States holds midterm elections a week after that. Energy prices are a live political issue in both contests, and a strait that stays dangerous keeps oil near the top of the agenda for governments and markets alike.

What happens next depends on whether the attacks continue and whether reporting improves. If flows keep sliding toward 11 million barrels a day while demand holds, prices have room to climb again. If shipping steadies, the market may treat last week's record as a spike rather than a new pattern. For now, the world's most important oil route is moving less oil, at higher risk, with much of the danger going uncounted.