US and Israel Draw Up Iran Strike Plans for After the Midterms

The United States and Israel have drawn up specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the American midterm elections on November 3, The New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing US officials and other people briefed on the deliberations. Nothing has been approved, and President Donald Trump has blocked similar plans before.

Plans on the table

The two militaries are preparing what the report calls a short but intensive operation. Likely targets include Iran's nuclear facilities, its missile and drone arsenal, and energy infrastructure. Some officials said oil refineries would be spared to limit gasoline price rises at home. Both militaries have stepped up exercises in recent weeks, including flights over Iraq to rehearse strike manoeuvres, the report said.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss the possible strikes. Some US officials argue that one more heavy round of attacks, possibly lasting about three days, could push Iran's economy to the brink and force Tehran into diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict.

Why the timing points to November

The American force gathering in the region, which includes three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and special operations forces, will not be fully in place until early November, the report said. Planners also prefer the longer hours of darkness over Iran at that time of year. Trump promised earlier this month that the United States would not strike before the vote. On October 8 he wrote that the US would not attack Iran at any time before the November 3 elections.

Trump has vetoed several plans for a return to major combat this year, most recently this month, when US and Israeli defense officials said an operation was nearly ready to launch. Officials told the Times there is still a small possibility he could order a campaign in October. Asked about the report, a White House official said the administration does not comment on military plans that may or may not exist, and that Trump is keeping all options open to make sure Iran cannot build a nuclear weapon. Trump himself said this week that the United States is not negotiating with Iran and that something will happen fairly soon.

Tehran answers with a threat

Iran warned it would respond hard to any new attack. Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, told the state-affiliated Student News Network: "The United States has the 'Mother of All Bombs.' We will show them the 'Father of All Bombs,' and it will definitely be something new for them." Tehran gave no details of any such weapon. The remark followed reports that Trump has considered using the 22,000-pound GBU-43/B bomb, known as the Mother of All Bombs, against Iran's deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility. Reporting on the plans also noted Iranian threats to hit Saudi refineries, including Aramco sites, to drive up energy prices if Iran is attacked.

Why it matters and what is next

Oil traders are already pricing in the risk. US crude rose 1.9 percent to 99.02 dollars a barrel in Asian trade on Thursday. The decision now sits with Trump. If he holds to his pattern of last-minute vetoes, the plans stay on paper. If he approves them, the strikes would open a new phase of a war that has already hit shipping, energy sites and cities across the region.