Rock Hill, South Carolina: Fox News Moves Senate Race to a Toss-Up as Trump Rallies for Graham

Fox News moved South Carolina's Senate race from Lean Republican to a toss-up on Thursday, five days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The change puts a Senate seat in a state President Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2024 among the races that will decide which party controls the chamber.

"We are updating this forecast to move South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-up," Fox News wrote. "As this week's Power Rankings reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared."

A tied poll in a Republican state

The shift follows a New York Times and Siena College poll that found Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews tied at 48 percent each. Other recent polls pointed the same way. A South Carolina Policy Council poll reported by FOX Carolina put Graham ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, and a Citadel poll suggested up to 2 percent of voters may write in Rep. Ralph Norman, the Republican Graham beat in the August runoff.

Graham, a disability advocate, was hand-picked by the state's Republican governor to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. Andrews, a pediatrician from Charleston, has built a competitive campaign with support from some Republicans. Two former South Carolina governors, Democrat Jim Hodges and Republican David Beasley, appeared together in an ad endorsing Andrews that began airing on Oct. 26.

Other forecasters still give Republicans an edge. The Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican, a step down from Likely Republican last week, and Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from Safe Republican to Leans Republican on Oct. 6. Kevin Bishop, a former spokesman for Lindsey Graham, wrote on Oct. 28 that the close race is not a trick. "Some are suggesting this is some polling head-fake," Bishop wrote. "I wish."

Trump takes the case to Rock Hill

Trump campaigned for Graham in Rock Hill on Thursday, his third visit to South Carolina before election day. Hundreds of supporters lined up early outside the Rock Hill Sports and Event Center, where Trump was expected to speak after 12:30 p.m. "Big Rally in South Carolina for the wonderful Darline Graham, today," Trump wrote on social media on Thursday morning. "She is fantastic. Lindsey is watching, and very proud of her!!!"

Rock Hill was a deliberate stop. Graham did not win the area in the Aug. 11 special Republican primary or the Aug. 25 runoff. Norman, who represents the area in Congress and grew up there, won it both times. Norman has said he will vote for Graham because he made a promise, but that his family will not. Attorney General Alan Wilson, the Republican nominee for governor, urged Republicans at the rally to end what he called family arguments and get behind Graham.

What it means for the Senate

Fox News rates the Senate overall as a toss-up, with six states set to decide the majority. In its forecast, Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans in 46, and Republicans would control the chamber with 50 seats because the vice president breaks ties. Fox News put the Democratic ceiling at 54 seats on a good night and the Republican ceiling at 52 seats.

Early voting in South Carolina runs through Oct. 31, with centers open from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. Election day polls on Nov. 3 are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.