OPEC+ Agrees to Hold December Oil Output Targets Steady

OPEC+ producers have agreed in principle to keep their December oil output targets unchanged, three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The understanding came ahead of a Sunday online meeting of seven core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.

The pause was expected. Reuters reported in July that the group was likely to make no changes to its targets during the fourth quarter and to turn instead to negotiations over 2027 quotas. Sunday's meeting was about confirming that course, not opening a new one.

How the group got here

In September, OPEC+ completed the phased rollback of a supply cut of 1.65 million barrels per day, first agreed in 2023. A second layer of cuts, about 2 million barrels per day covering most members, stays in place through the end of 2026.

Gulf producers have been raising exports that were disrupted for months by the war with Iran. Most are still pumping well below their output targets, so a decision to hold the targets steady does not by itself put much extra oil on the water. The gap between targets and real production is part of why the market has taken the pause calmly.

Brent crude futures for December, which expired on Friday, closed up $2.76, or 2.4 percent, at $117.64 a barrel, after touching a high of $118. Prices near six month highs leave the group with little pressure to act in either direction: opening the taps would fight the price, and cutting again would hand share to rivals.

Why it matters

OPEC+ speaks for a large share of the world's oil supply, and its targets set the frame for prices that feed into fuel, freight and food costs everywhere. A steady December means refiners and traders plan the winter on the supply they already have. It also moves the real argument to next year, where quotas decide which countries get to sell more of their oil.

What happens next

Before 2027 baselines can be set, the group has to finish a review of each member's production capacity during the fourth quarter. Those baselines will determine future quotas and shape how the remaining cuts of about 2 million barrels per day are unwound. Capacity is a sore subject: countries that have invested in new fields want credit for them, and countries that cannot reach their targets have reason to keep the argument slow.

The December targets are agreed in principle, not yet formally adopted. The online meeting was expected to confirm them. Any change in tone would come from the capacity review, not from December.