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Los Angeles, California: Bass and Raman Tied at 40 Percent in a New Mayor Poll Days Before Election Day

A UC Berkeley poll released Wednesday puts Mayor Karen Bass and Nithya Raman at 40 percent each, erasing the 11 point lead Raman held in September. Former Spencer Pratt voters drove the swing, and 19 percent of likely voters are still undecided before the November 3 election.

By Orbit Post2 min read
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Los Angeles, California: Bass and Raman Tied at 40 Percent in a New Mayor Poll Days Before Election Day

Key points

  • Los Angeles, California has a tied mayoral race with days left before the election.
  • The poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, surveyed 2,197 likely city voters online between October 19 and October 25 and carries a margin of error of three percentage points.
  • Poll director Mark DiCamillo told the Los Angeles Times that the movement came largely from voters who backed reality television star Spencer Pratt in the primary and are now making up their minds.

Los Angeles, California has a tied mayoral race with days left before the election. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released on Wednesday, October 28 puts Mayor Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 40 percent each among likely voters, with 19 percent still undecided. Bass trailed Raman by 11 points in the same poll in September.

The poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, surveyed 2,197 likely city voters online between October 19 and October 25 and carries a margin of error of three percentage points. In the September survey, Raman led Bass 39 percent to 28 percent, with a third of likely voters undecided. A separate California Post poll by McLaughlin and Associates had Raman ahead 46.7 percent to 38.8 percent, with 13.5 percent undecided.

Former Pratt voters drive the swing

Poll director Mark DiCamillo told the Los Angeles Times that the movement came largely from voters who backed reality television star Spencer Pratt in the primary and are now making up their minds. Bass nearly doubled her support among Pratt voters, rising from 22 percent to 41 percent, while Raman's share of that group slipped to 14 percent. Forty five percent of Pratt voters are still undecided.

"The Pratt voters are the biggest insertion," DiCamillo said. "The question remains, since we're looking at Pratt voters, 45 percent remain undecided. Will they vote?" In the primary, Bass took 34 percent, Raman 29 percent and Pratt 25.5 percent.

A tied race with real headwinds for the incumbent

The tie comes even as voters rate Bass poorly. According to the poll, 65 percent of likely voters view her unfavorably and 32 percent view her favorably, a standing shaped by her response to the January 2025 wildfires. Her campaign read the new numbers as momentum. "The momentum in this race is with Karen Bass," campaign spokesperson Alex Stack said in a statement, pointing to the announcement this week of support from Rick Caruso.

Bass has spent the final weeks pressing Raman's readiness for the job, telling her directly in the candidates' final debate, "You are not ready for prime time." A defeat for Bass would be the first loss by an incumbent Los Angeles mayor since 2005, when James Hahn lost to Antonio Villaraigosa. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and the 19 percent who are still undecided will decide it.

Timeline

  1. Sep 2026A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll puts Raman ahead of Bass 39 percent to 28 percent, with a third of likely voters undecided.
  2. Oct 19-25, 2026The Berkeley IGS poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, surveys 2,197 likely city voters online for the new mayoral poll.
  3. Oct 28, 2026The new poll is released: Bass and Raman are tied at 40 percent each, with 19 percent undecided, days before the election.
  4. Nov 3, 2026Election Day in Los Angeles. The undecided voters, including 45 percent of former Spencer Pratt voters, will decide the race.

Sources