Netanyahu Bloc Leads Israel Count 53 to 48, but No One Has 61

Israel's election has left no bloc with a majority. With about 91 percent of the vote counted on Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 53 seats in the 120 seat Knesset, the bloc led by his rival Gadi Eisenkot was on 48, and parties representing Arab Israelis were on a record 19, according to the count reported by The Guardian from the Central Elections Committee. Sixty-one seats are needed to govern.

Netanyahu lost the majority his coalition held before the vote, but he finished ahead of the opposition and his Likud party remained the largest single party. Seat breakdowns reported by Ynet put Likud on 26 seats and Eisenkot's Yashar party on 21. Analysts said the final count of absentee and military ballots was unlikely to shift the picture in a significant way.

A winner who did not win a majority

Former Netanyahu adviser Aviv Bushinsky called the result a political resurrection for a prime minister many had written off after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks and the criticism of the security failures that followed. Danny Citrinowicz, a regional analyst and former military intelligence officer, put it more plainly in comments reported by Reuters. "He won by not losing," Citrinowicz said. "He managed to survive."

Turnout was high. The Central Elections Committee put overall turnout at 77.7 percent, and more than 5.4 million people had voted by 8 p.m. on election day, Tuesday, October 27, the highest figure for that hour since 1988, according to reports of the committee's figures.

The choice now facing Eisenkot

Eisenkot's path to power runs through the Arab parties, and it is narrow. Yousef Jabareen, head of the Arab majority Joint List, told AFP that the public had voted for new leadership and that anyone who wants to offer a real alternative to Netanyahu will have to talk to his parties. He said he was willing to cooperate with an opposition led government to remove Netanyahu, but was not open to joining such a coalition outright. Outside support for a minority government is the model on the table, and few observers expect it to last long if it forms at all.

Netanyahu, for his part, told supporters in Jerusalem that Likud is the nation's largest party and called for a strong right wing government. His party also filed a complaint with the Central Elections Committee alleging that Arab parties had compromised the integrity of the election. The committee said it would examine the claims as part of its routine post election review.

What happens next

If neither man can assemble 61 seats, Netanyahu stays on as head of a caretaker government and Israel faces the prospect of another election. Markets took the deadlock badly on Wednesday. The shekel weakened about 2 percent to 3.1185 to the dollar and Tel Aviv's main stock index fell about 3 percent, Reuters reported, as traders priced in a long and fragile negotiation.

The count continues on Thursday, with definitive results expected during the day. Coalition talks are expected to begin in earnest once the final tally is official.