Fossil Fuel Emissions Set to Fall in 2026 for the First Time Since 2020

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall in 2026 for the first time since 2020. The 2026 Global Carbon Budget puts fossil carbon dioxide emissions at 38.2 billion metric tons for the year, down 0.4 percent from the record 38.4 billion tons recorded in 2025.

The budget is the 21st annual edition from the Global Carbon Project. More than 140 scientists produced it, and it was published in Earth System Science Data on November 10 as a preprint. The findings were presented during the COP31 climate talks in Antalya, Turkey, where governments are negotiating the next round of emissions commitments.

A fall driven by an energy shock

The decline is not spread evenly across fuels. Emissions from oil are projected to fall 1.9 percent and emissions from natural gas 0.3 percent, while emissions from coal rise 0.6 percent, according to Carbon Brief's analysis of the budget.

The main driver is the energy shock that followed the Iran conflict. Supply restrictions from the Middle East, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cut oil use, and rapid growth in wind and solar power added to the drop. Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher at CICERO and a co-author of the report, told Gizmodo: "We see the main driver for the 2026 decline as the energy supply constraints brought about by the events in the Middle East."

Total emissions still set a record

The fossil fuel fall does not mean total emissions fell. Carbon dioxide from all sources, including land use change, is projected to reach a record 43.3 billion tons in 2026, up from 42.8 billion tons in 2025.

Glen Peters, a research professor at CICERO and a report co-author, put the result plainly, as reported by Le Monde: "The picture from the Global Carbon Budget is a flatline, not a decline." Peters also said annual reductions cannot establish a permanent turning point without deeper structural change.

The 2026 fossil projection is preliminary. The range runs from a fall of 1.5 percent to a rise of 0.6 percent, so a small increase cannot be ruled out. By country and region, fossil emissions are projected to fall 0.9 percent in China, 1.3 percent in the United States and 1.5 percent in the European Union, while rising 4.4 percent in India. Carbon Brief's analysis puts the remaining carbon budget at 165 billion tons.