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Canada Liberal Lead Narrows to 13 Points in Liaison Poll

Liaison Strategies puts the Liberals at 44 percent and the Conservatives at 31 percent, a third straight week of narrowing, while Mark Carney's personal approval rises to 65 percent.

By Orbit Post4 min read
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Canada Liberal Lead Narrows to 13 Points in Liaison Poll

Key points

  • The Liberals still lead Canada's federal race by a wide margin, but the gap is shrinking for the third week in a row.
  • Liaison principal David Valentin pointed to the slow drift rather than any single jump.
  • The striking part of the release is what did not move.

The Liberals still lead Canada's federal race by a wide margin, but the gap is shrinking for the third week in a row. Liaison Strategies released its latest national tracker on Monday, October 26, putting the Liberals at 44 percent, the Conservatives at 31 percent and the New Democratic Party at 14 percent among decided and leaning voters. The 13-point lead is down from 18 points at the start of October. The poll, carried in the Poliwave national tracker as the most recent federal reading, surveyed 1,000 Canadians from October 11 to 24 by interactive voice recording, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison principal David Valentin pointed to the slow drift rather than any single jump. "The Conservatives have added a point in each of the past three updates, taking them from 28 percent to 31 percent. Over the same period, the Liberals have slipped from 46 percent to 44 percent," Valentin said. "Both changes have helped narrow the gap. The Conservatives are recovering, but they are still 13 points behind."

The number under the number

The striking part of the release is what did not move. Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval rose a point even as his party slipped: 65 percent of Canadians approve of his performance, up from 64 percent last week, while 27 percent disapprove, down from 28 percent. "The Liberal lead is shrinking without a decline in Carney's approval," Valentin said. "Canadians are giving the Liberals a little less support on the ballot while continuing to give the prime minister strong marks."

A second pollster tells a similar story with different numbers. Research Co.'s latest national survey put the Liberals at 46 percent of decided voters, the Conservatives at 31 percent, the NDP at 11 percent and the Bloc Quebecois at 7 percent, with Carney holding the highest approval of any federal leader at 56 percent, ahead of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre at 38 percent. Polling Canada's model, updated October 24 across the week's Nanos, Liaison and Leger readings, put the overall Liberal lead at about sixteen points, with seat projections still giving the Liberals a commanding advantage.

Why it matters

A 13-point lead is a comfortable position for a governing party, and every recent pollster still shows the Liberals far ahead. What changed is the direction. Three straight weeks of narrowing, one point at a time, is the kind of movement that shapes strategy in Ottawa: it gives Poilievre's Conservatives a recovery story to tell their own supporters after a difficult autumn, and it warns the Liberals that their post-election cushion is being spent. The split between party support and leader approval is the detail both camps will study. Voters who like Carney but drift from his party are the voters campaigns can win back, and also the voters most likely to keep drifting.

The context

The tracker lands in a busy political week. On Monday, Poilievre and several opposition MPs wrote to Carney asking him to repeal the oil tanker ban on British Columbia's north coast, as a Conservative bill to scrap it reaches second reading. Carney hosts European Union leaders in Montreal on October 29 and 30. In British Columbia, Lorne Doerkson's Conservatives have just taken power from David Eby's New Democrats, reshaping the western map the federal parties campaign on. Liaison's release notes the tracker is a rolling survey combining two weeks of interviews, so consecutive releases share one week of sampling, and results may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.

What happens next

The next trackers from Liaison and Nanos will show whether the one-point-a-week Conservative climb continues or stalls at 31 percent. The seat models still project a large Liberal majority on these numbers, so the pressure point is not the standings, it is the trend. If the party vote keeps softening while Carney's personal numbers hold, expect the Liberals to campaign even more directly on their leader, and the Conservatives to keep chipping at the party brand around him.

Key numbers

Liberals 44 percent, Conservatives 31 percent, NDP 14 percent in the Liaison tracker released October 26. Lead down from 18 points at the start of October to 13. Carney approval 65 percent, disapproval 27 percent. Sample: 1,000 Canadians, October 11 to 24, margin of error plus or minus 3.1 points.

Sources