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71 Percent of Americans Doubt They Will Ever See Trump's $5,000 Dividend, Poll Finds

Only 14 percent expect the check in the new NBC News poll, as the $1.2 trillion midterm pledge draws fire from Democrats and some Republicans.

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71 Percent of Americans Doubt They Will Ever See Trump's $5,000 Dividend, Poll Finds
Photo: Architect of the Capitol, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:United_States_Capitol_-_west_front.jpg)

Key points

  • WASHINGTON.
  • Asked whether they expect the payment, 42 percent said they definitely will not receive it and 29 percent said they probably will not.
  • Trump launched the idea at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where he pledged to pay every American adult $5,000 if Republicans keep control of both houses of Congress in the November 3…

WASHINGTON. Most Americans do not believe the check is coming. A new NBC News Decision Desk poll, taken with SurveyMonkey and released on Sunday, October 18, found that 71 percent of adults think they will not receive the $5,000 dividend President Donald Trump has promised if Republicans win the midterm elections.

Asked whether they expect the payment, 42 percent said they definitely will not receive it and 29 percent said they probably will not. Only 14 percent said they think the money will arrive.

A pledge made in Dallas

Trump launched the idea at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where he pledged to pay every American adult $5,000 if Republicans keep control of both houses of Congress in the November 3 midterms. He called the payment the Trump dividend.

Experts say the checks would cost an estimated $1.2 trillion, and Congress would have to approve the payments before any money could go out. That price tag is part of why the promise is drawing fire from both parties.

Maryland Representative Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, called the proposal a "political bribe." New York Representative Dan Goldman called it "corrupt and blatantly illegal."

Some Republicans pushed back as well. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warned that the plan could "lead to more debt and inflation." Maine Senator Susan Collins said in a statement that spending decisions "should not appear to be tied to election results."

Trump has floated payments like this before. He previously suggested tariff dividend checks and DOGE stimulus checks, and neither one materialized.

Prices are why voters are skeptical

The doubt sits on top of a hard year for household budgets. In the same survey, 67 percent of adults said gasoline prices are a serious problem for themselves and their families, and many said they have changed grocery purchases and cut discretionary spending to afford necessities, Newsmax reported.

Only 18 percent said their financial situation has improved over the past year. Forty four percent said it has worsened, and 38 percent reported no change. The economy was the top issue in the poll, cited by 31 percent of respondents.

The dividend was suggested as Republicans face headwinds in the midterms, in particular the ongoing Iran war and the spike in gas and diesel prices that followed it. A payment voters do not believe in does little to answer that pressure, and the poll suggests most voters have already priced the promise at zero.

How the poll was done

The NBC News Decision Desk poll surveyed 19,135 adults online from September 28 to October 12. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Sources