WMO Says the World Has Entered a New Age of Climate Extremes as COP31 Opens

The World Meteorological Organization released its State of the Climate Update 2026 on Monday, the first day of the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkiye. The report's opening line from the United Nations Secretary General set the tone.

"We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change. Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising. And those least responsible are suffering first and worst," Antonio Guterres said in the release.

The update uses data to September 2026 and does not yet reflect the latest impacts of El Nino, which has intensified since August and is expected to be the strongest on record by December.

The numbers in the update

The past 12 years have individually been the warmest on record, and the past four years, 2023 to 2026, are the top four. The global average surface temperature for January to September 2026 was about 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre industrial average of 1850 to 1900. That is comparable to the full year averages for 2025 at 1.43 degrees and 2023 at 1.46 degrees, and below the 2024 record of 1.55 degrees. The WMO said the 2026 figure is likely to rise by year end because of El Nino.

Earth's energy imbalance reached its highest level since monitoring began in 1960 in 2025, and early 2026 values point to another record high. The ocean absorbs 90 percent of the excess heat, and 2026 is on track to be the tenth straight year of record ocean warmth.

"We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for," WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said. She said El Nino releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured, so there is simply more heat available to release.

Global mean sea level reached a record high in 2026, with June, July and August the highest values since satellite altimetry began in 1993. Antarctic sea ice reached its third lowest annual maximum on record. Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatons of ice in 2025, the fourth straight year in which all 19 glaciated regions lost ice.

Greenhouse gas levels set a new record in 2025. Carbon dioxide reached about 426.8 parts per million, up 53 percent from about 278 parts per million in 1750. Methane reached 1,948 parts per billion, up 167 percent, and nitrous oxide reached 339.1 parts per billion, up 26 percent. Station measurements show concentrations kept rising in 2026.

The human cost the report lists

The WMO listed European heatwaves, drought and wildfires linked to more than 30,000 excess deaths by early estimates, an April heatwave that exposed an estimated 146.5 million people in India to extreme heat, and a Himalayan glacier collapse and flash flood in late August that killed more than 1,300 people in Nepal. The World Health Organization has classified the expected El Nino health impacts as a health emergency for the first time.

CNN, reporting the same report, said this El Nino is on track to be the most intense on record and will continue into 2027, and that 2027 may end up the hottest year on record. One count moved the other way: countries reporting multi hazard early warning systems rose from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025. The final report is due in March 2027.