TSX Futures Climb as Canada Waits on Friday Jobs Report

Canada's market opened Thursday in the slipstream of the US result, and its next real test arrives Friday morning. Futures on the S and P TSX index for December were up 0.2 percent at 5:59 a.m. ET on Thursday, November 5, extending the gains of the previous session after Democrats won control of Congress in the US midterms, Reuters reported.

Wednesday had already been a strong day in Toronto. The TSX posted its biggest rally in seven months, led by financials and miners, as investors priced in a US result that points to a slower tariff path. Thursday's early move was smaller, a hold rather than a charge, with oil up about 1.5 percent but Brent still below $100 a barrel.

The Friday number

Markets are looking ahead to Friday's Canadian employment report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. A Reuters poll of economists forecasts a gain of 13,600 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate steady at 6.5 percent.

The bar is low, and the context explains why. Canada's last report, for September, showed employment falling by 68,300, a second straight monthly drop, with the unemployment rate at 6.5 percent and the employment rate down to 60.6 percent. A gain of 13,600 would not erase September. It would show the fall had stopped, which is the question the Bank of Canada and every lender on Bay Street is asking.

Not every forecaster sits at the poll number. RBC Economics expects employment to rise by 15,000 in October, with unemployment easing to 6.4 percent, and notes that September's weakness sat mostly in public sector roles, in education and health, rather than in the trade exposed private sector. RBC also notes that early job openings data points to firmer hiring demand in October.

The softer signals underneath

One domestic signal argues for caution. Canada's manufacturing purchasing managers index slipped to 49.6 in October, below the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction, the first contraction reading of 2026 in that survey. Friday's report also lands on the same morning as the US October jobs report, so Canadian markets will trade two numbers at once: their own labour market, and the US one that moves the Canadian dollar and rate expectations with it.

For households, the channel is direct. Jobs and wages feed mortgage demand, credit losses at the big banks, and the Bank of Canada's next rate call after this year's hike. A weak print would revive talk that the bank tightened into a slowdown. A steady one keeps the current path in place.

Key numbers

• Plus 0.2 percent: December TSX futures at 5:59 a.m. ET Thursday
• Plus 13,600: the Reuters poll forecast for October jobs
• 6.5 percent: forecast unemployment, unchanged
• Minus 68,300: September's actual jobs change
• 49.6: October manufacturing PMI, a contraction reading
• Plus 15,000 and 6.4 percent: the RBC Economics forecast

What happens next

The report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, November 6, at the same time as the US jobs report. The Orbit Post markets desk will cover both numbers in the Friday edition. Until then, Toronto trades on borrowed momentum: a US election result it did not vote in, priced through banks, miners and an oil price that stays under $100.

This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.