Democrats Turn to a Wide-Open 2028 Race With No Favorite After Midterm Sweep

The midterm elections ended on Tuesday, November 3, and Democrats are already turning to the next fight: the 2028 presidential race. Reuters reported on November 5 that the contest could become one of the most crowded and unpredictable Democratic primaries in decades, and that it is likely to lay bare the party's divide over how to win back the White House.

No Democrat has emerged as a clear favorite. Reuters said the field could attract dozens of contenders. Democratic strategist Scott Ferson put the early soundings higher still, saying at least 30 Democrats are asking people close to them whether they should run. The Council on Foreign Relations, writing as the midterms closed, called the Democratic race a possible free for all with a dozen candidates or more, similar to 2020.

The names in circulation

Several possible candidates have said they are considering a run or have declined to rule one out, Reuters reported. They include former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost to President Donald Trump in 2024, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. Other names in circulation in the Council on Foreign Relations review include Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.

None of them has confirmed a run. Reuters contacted representatives for nine of the party's most prominent possible contenders, and none confirmed a 2028 campaign. Many of the possible candidates spent the final weeks of the midterm campaign stumping for other Democrats in states with early nominating contests, including Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Center or left is the open argument

Democrats won big on Tuesday, in what Reuters described as a sharp rebuke to Trump and his agenda. They enter the 2028 campaign still divided over whether to tack to the center or move further left on healthcare, taxes, policing and foreign policy.

Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik told Reuters that both progressives and moderates will claim the midterm results back their approach, setting up an intense internal battle over the party's future. He said all wings of the party can find affirmation in the results, and that the party has not had a proper debate about its philosophy and direction since 2016.

One high-profile progressive win came in Michigan, a likely 2028 swing state, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed easily defeated Republican Mike Rogers and became the first Muslim elected to the US Senate, Reuters reported.

The argument starts in public on November 12, nine days after the November 3 elections. Buttigieg and Representative Ro Khanna of California are among the prospective candidates scheduled to attend a gathering in Denver hosted by Majority Democrats, a group backed largely by moderate Democrats. Its chair, Representative Jake Auchincloss of Massachusetts, said the event is meant to spark a debate about the party's future and set out a positive agenda for what the party is for, rather than just being against Trump.

Former Harris adviser David Plouffe made the same point about an open field at a Harvard forum on Wednesday. The Harvard Crimson reported that Plouffe called the race for the Democratic nomination wide open and said it could be the most wide open Democratic primary in more than two decades.

Republicans in Trump's shadow

The Republican field is smaller in the early talk. Reuters listed Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the leaders of the widely discussed group to succeed Trump, who is barred by the Constitution from seeking a third term. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declined to rule out another bid. Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas are also viewed as possible candidates.

Republican hopefuls face a different test: how to step away from Trump after Tuesday's rout without breaking with his Make America Great Again movement. Republican strategist Matt Dole told Reuters that Vance has less room than other contenders to put daylight between himself and Trump, because a vice president is expected to defend the president and his policies. Vance said on Wednesday that the war in Iran had cost Republicans the election. Exit polls on Tuesday showed younger voters, Hispanics and some Black men, all part of the coalition that powered Trump's 2024 win, had deserted Republicans, Reuters reported.

The new Congress takes the oath of office on January 3, 2027. The campaign to succeed Trump will hang over the two years that follow, and for Democrats it has, in practice, already started.