Europe Steady, US Futures Rise as Oil Slides Before Midterms

European stocks opened the week almost flat on Monday, November 2, and US stock futures rose, as a sharp fall in oil prices gave investors a reason to return to risk after October's bruising technology selloff. The pan-European Stoxx 600 eased 0.06 percent in early trade. London's FTSE 100 slipped about 0.1 to 0.25 percent as energy shares fell with crude, Germany's DAX was flat to slightly lower, and France's CAC 40 was little changed. Spain's IBEX rose 0.6 percent.

In New York, futures pointed to a higher open. Dow futures rose about 0.5 percent, S and P 500 futures rose about 0.5 percent, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.84 to 0.89 percent, according to TipRanks and Reuters reporting carried by Devdiscourse. At 5:15 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 270 points and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 253.5 points.

Oil does the heavy lifting

Brent crude fell more than 4 percent to about 108.68 dollars a barrel, and US WTI fell below 100 dollars at one point, down 4.18 percent to 99.77 dollars. Reports that President Donald Trump will give diplomacy with Iran more time before deciding on new strikes, and that Qatari mediated talks could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pulled the war premium out of crude. Cheaper oil eased inflation pressure, but it dragged London's heavyweight energy stocks lower and capped the FTSE.

Sterling rose above 1.34 dollars, its highest since mid-September. The US 10-year Treasury yield eased 2 basis points to 4.91 percent, and Germany's 10-year yield held near 3.32 percent.

A week that decides a lot

Investors face four tests in five days. The US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3 decide control of Congress. Apple and Palantir report earnings after the closing bell on Monday, with Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Marriott and Estee Lauder also on the day's list. The Bank of England announces its rate decision on Thursday at noon London time. The US October jobs report lands on Friday, with economists polled by Dow Jones expecting a gain of 55,000 jobs.

The midterm vote carries a direct market angle. A Democratic sweep of the House and Senate is viewed as negative for the AI trade, amid voter concern about data centers, while any result that leaves Washington divided is read as a limit on new policy shocks. That sits on top of the October lesson: the Nasdaq 100 shed more than 2.5 trillion dollars in market value last month and came close to correction territory as investors questioned the scale of Big Tech AI spending.

Early movers

Most megacap and growth stocks rose in premarket trade. Okta gained 3.6 percent after S and P Dow Jones Indices said the identity management firm will join the S and P 500, replacing Kenvue. Intel inched 0.2 percent higher after its worst one-day fall since the 1980s on Friday. Germany added a soft data point: retail sales fell 2 percent year on year in September, while the Czech manufacturing PMI rose to 55 in October.

What is next

Monday's US session will show whether the futures bid survives contact with Apple's numbers after the bell. ISM manufacturing data arrives during the session. If oil holds near its lows and earnings land clean, November starts with a repair job. If either breaks, October's selloff has a second act ready.