Cook Political Report Shifts 19 House Races Toward Democrats as GOP Majority Path Fades

The Cook Political Report moved 19 House races toward Democrats on Friday, October 23, 2026, and said the Republican path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated. The nonpartisan forecaster said new polling and advertising spending drove the changes, which landed 11 days before the November 3 midterm elections.

After the changes, Cook rates 220 seats as Solid, Likely or Lean Democrat, 198 seats as Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 17 races as pure toss ups. A party needs 218 seats to control the House, so the ratings place Democrats ahead of that line before election day. Cook said the likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of between 12 and 22 seats. Democrats now hold 215 seats, according to Cook.

Six races leave the toss up column

Six districts moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Four of them are held by Republicans: Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's 6th District, Gabe Evans in Colorado's 8th District, Jen Kiggans in Virginia's 2nd District and Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin's 3rd District. The other two are North Carolina's 11th District, an open seat last held by Republican Chuck Edwards, and Texas's 34th District, held by Democrat Vicente Gonzalez.

Two open seats moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up: Kentucky's 6th District, where Democrat Zach Dembo faces Republican Ralph Alvarado, and Texas's 35th District, where Democrat Johnny Garcia faces Republican Carlos De La Cruz. Six more Republican held seats eased from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, among them Arizona's 2nd District, held by Eli Crane, and Colorado's 4th District, held by Lauren Boebert. Two North Carolina seats moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, and two Democratic seats, in California and Texas, moved from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.

Safe seats are moving too

Boebert's shift drew notice because President Donald Trump carried her Colorado district by 18 points in 2024. She faces Democrat Eileen Laubacher, and the Daily Caller reported that Boebert holds a 51 percent negative approval rating in the district. Trump carried Crane's Arizona district by 15 points in 2024.

Polling in two of the new Lean Democrat seats is close. A Public Policy Polling survey in mid October put Democrat JoAnna Mendoza one point ahead of Ciscomani in Arizona. A McLaughlin and Associates survey in mid September put Evans ahead of Democrat Manny Rutinel by 48 percent to 46 percent in Colorado, inside the margin of error. Trump won Evans's district by 50 percent to 48 percent in 2024, and he won Kiggans's Virginia district by 0.2 of a point.

What it means for November 3

Analyst Henry Olsen told The Center Square that he expects Democrats to win between 225 and 232 seats. Cook said that, in the best case for Democrats, the party could enter the new Congress with more seats than it won when it flipped the House in 2006 and in 2018. The Washington Examiner reported that Republicans have struggled this year to reach voters on the economy while the war in Iran pushes fuel prices higher.

Ratings are not results, and the 17 toss up races can still move the final margin in either direction. But with 11 days left in the campaign, the forecaster that both parties watch most closely now treats a Democratic House as the expected outcome and argues mainly about the size of the majority.