White Sox, Guardians collide in winner-take-all Game 5

Everything comes down to Saturday night. The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians meet in a winner-take-all Game 5 of the AL Division Series at Progressive Field, 8 p.m. ET, with a trip to the AL Championship Series on the line. The road team has won all four games of the series so far.

Cleveland is handing the ball to Gavin Williams, its ace. Williams asked for the start himself on Friday, a day after he closed out Game 4 in relief. "Gavin wants the ball. We want him to have the ball, and it's his game," said manager Stephen Vogt.

Williams has been the story of the Guardians' October. He finished 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and an American League-leading 248 strikeouts, and he struck out 11 over five-plus innings in Game 2, touching 100 mph sixteen times and becoming the first pitcher in franchise history to strike out five in a row in a postseason game. Now he starts on short-ish rest after throwing 18 pitches in relief Thursday. If his stuff holds, Cleveland is favored at home. If he tires early, the plan gets interesting.

The White Sox counter with Sean Burke, who won Game 2 for Chicago in relief with 5 1/3 innings of one-hit ball. Burke finished the season 11-7 with a 3.34 ERA, per USA Today. The sixth-seeded White Sox have ridden chaos pitching and a nothing-to-lose attitude all series, and they already swept Houston to get here.

The series has flipped twice. Chicago took the first two games in Cleveland, 3-0 and 4-3. Then Cleveland's bats woke up in Chicago, winning 9-3 and 9-5. In Game 4, the Guardians trailed 2-0 before Patrick Bailey's solo homer and Jose Ramirez's two-run shot flipped the game, and a six-run sixth inning broke it open. Cleveland has scored nine or more runs in back-to-back playoff games for the first time since the 1997 World Series.

The winner faces the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS starting Monday, October 12, in St. Petersburg. The Rays swept the Yankees. Only seven teams have ever completed a 2-0 division-series comeback, a number Cleveland is one win away from joining.

Why it matters

Game 5s are the purest product in sports, and this one has everything: an ace pitching on short rest who asked for the ball, a sixth seed that refuses to lose on the road, and a rematch of a division rivalry with the season on the line.

The pitching decision is the whole game. Williams has never started on this kind of turnaround in the postseason. Cleveland's bullpen is available behind him, but the Guardians would rather get six or seven innings from their best arm. Chicago's strategy all series has been to throw the game into the bullpen early and dare the other side to match.

The ALCS is waiting. Tampa Bay has been resting since it finished the Yankees, and Monday's Game 1 comes fast. Both teams know the prize. A tired roster from a five-game grind meets a fresh division champion. Rest matters in October.

What to watch

Watch Williams' velocity in the first two innings. If he is still hitting 100, Cleveland can breathe. If he is sitting 96 and missing spots, Vogt has a decision to make early. The Guardians' season comes down to how many outs their ace can get.

Watch the White Sox's lineup construction. Chicago has been aggressive all series, and Burke has to give them a chance before turning it over to the bullpen. The formula is simple: keep it close through five, then turn the game into a reliever war.

Watch the crowd. Progressive Field has watched its team lose the first two games at home, then watched the bats come alive on the road. A Game 5 at home is the payoff. Cleveland's fans have waited for a night like this.

The game airs on TBS and truTV, streaming on HBO Max. First pitch is 8 p.m. ET. The breaking desk will update this story after the final out.

Key numbers

• 248: Williams' AL-leading strikeout total
• 18: runs Cleveland scored in Games 3 and 4 combined
• 0-4: the home team's record in this series so far
• 7: teams that have completed a 2-0 division-series comeback since 1995