Sudan Famine Risk Grows as Drought Cuts Rain to a 30 Year Low

Sudan farmers face a new threat on top of a civil war that has run since 2023: drought. El Nino is bringing higher temperatures and dry weather to Sudan, where pockets of famine have already appeared in areas under siege. Dry conditions are hurting crops and livestock across the south, the region where rain fed farming produces much of the country food, UN officials and aid experts told Reuters. Reuters spoke to more than two dozen farmers for its October 23 report. One large scale farmer said he expects his harvest to be a quarter of last year crop.

Rain at record lows

Rainfall from July to September, the peak rainy season, was the lowest in more than three decades across the country, data from the United States Geological Survey shows. In North Darfur state in the west, it was the lowest since 1984, the same year a famine devastated Sudan and Ethiopia. In North Kordofan state in the centre, it was the lowest since 1990. In Gedaref state in the southeast, it was the lowest since 1991.

The UN backed global hunger monitor, the IPC, warned in an alert on October 12: "The risk of famine is growing in many conflict-affected areas of Sudan, with the impact of El Nino-induced drought compounding already dire conditions."

Hunger numbers are set to rise

In June, the IPC said 5.1 million people in Sudan faced severe hunger. The monitor is now updating those numbers. Aid officials had expected the count to fall once harvesting started in November and December, helped by a lull in fighting in some areas. The drought has reversed that hope. The numbers are now expected to rise instead.

The UN World Food Programme forecasts that an additional 350,000 people will face severe hunger by the end of 2026, rising to 1.2 million more by August 2027. Samuel Clendon, the WFP head of programme for Sudan, gave Reuters those figures in October and said they had been shared with donors.

Why it matters

Sudan war has already cut farming, markets and aid routes for more than three years. A failed rain season lands on families with no reserve left. Low rain in the states that grow food means smaller harvests in November and December, thinner livestock, and higher prices in markets that aid convoys already struggle to reach. The IPC June count of 5.1 million people in severe hunger was made before this rain failure was fully counted. The update, when it comes, will test whether donors and aid agencies can move food into conflict areas before the new forecasts for the end of 2026 come due.