Oil Prices Plunge 9 Percent as Midterm Defeat Raises Hopes of an End to the Iran War

Oil prices fell 9 percent on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, in volatile trading, as investors waited for Washington's next move in the US-Israeli war with Iran after President Donald Trump's Republican Party lost control of Congress in the midterm elections. Traders read the result as raising the chance that US military action in the Middle East gets curbed, and sold crude through the afternoon.

Brent futures dropped $9.27, or 8.9 percent, to $94.29 a barrel, touching the lowest level since September 4 at 4:58 p.m. GMT, Reuters reported. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $7.44, or 7.8 percent, to $88.54. FXStreet put WTI lower still, slumping 9 percent to trade around $87 a barrel, its lowest level in four weeks.

Why traders sold

Trump acknowledged the Iran war played a role in his party's defeat and told the Financial Times on Tuesday, November 3, that the US had no immediate plans to strike Iran. That comment, made before the scale of the defeat was clear, set the tone for the oil market once results landed.

Dennis Kissler, senior vice-president of trading at BOK Financial, said larger crude oil exports out of the Middle East, along with Trump stating he has no immediate plans to strike Iran, are keeping the pressure on crude oil prices for now. He added that Democratic control of Congress could also tighten US military spending in the Middle East and further heighten the possibility of a peace deal sooner than later.

Diplomacy, warnings and doubt

Qatar stepped up mediation efforts after the US elections. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday, November 3, that Iran and the US remain far from a deal to end their war, a reminder that the hopes priced into Wednesday's fall have no agreement behind them yet.

Iran's Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement that US hostility would persist regardless of which party was in power. Yemen's Houthis said they had targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, with no confirmation from Saudi authorities. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said of the war: "We will end the war."

Not every trader bought the peace reading. Carl Larry, trading and North America risk team lead at Enverus, said the elections are giving bears a reason to cast doubt on a continuation in Iran, but added that he is more concerned that an escalation in Iran could come sooner than a resolution.

Supply in the background

US crude inventories fell by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels in the week ended October 30, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an 877,000-barrel rise. The draw did not stop the fall.

Gulf exports of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding liquefied petroleum gas, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, according to Vortexa ship-tracking data, down from 18.9 million barrels per day in September but still roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels. More oil is leaving the region than a month ago, and on Wednesday the market decided the political news mattered more than the stock draw.