Oil Falls as Trump Says New Iran Attacks Are Highly Unlikely

Oil prices fell at the open of trading on Monday, November 9, 2026, after US President Donald Trump said he was highly unlikely to order new attacks on Iran while talks to end the conflict make progress, Reuters reported. Brent crude fell 64 cents, or 0.64 percent, to $97.67 a barrel by 1134 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate fell 35 cents, or 0.40 percent, to $90.51 a barrel. Brent briefly fell more than $1 a barrel earlier in the session.

Trump made the remarks in a phone interview with CNN on Sunday. "It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," he said. "The answer is, highly unlikely it's going to be necessary."

Talks on one side, shipping reports on the other

The fall came even as both countries reported that shipping had been hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported. The strait carries a large share of the world's seaborne oil, and reports of attacks on ships there usually push prices up, not down. On Monday the talks outweighed the shipping reports in the first hours of trading.

Iran has warned that any renewed US attack would bring retaliatory strikes against American and Israeli targets, Business Today reported in its account of the same Reuters story. Trump had hinted at renewing major attacks on Iran after last week's US midterm elections, Reuters reported, but there has been no sign of a large-scale US military operation.

A second pressure on supply ran the other way. Production at Iraq's Khor Mor gas field, one of the largest in the Kurdistan region, was suspended on Sunday after a drone struck an LPG storage tank and started a fire, two sources at the region's electricity ministry told Reuters. The halt cut power generation in the region. That story points to tighter supply in the region even as the US president talks down the chance of new strikes.

Why it matters

Oil has moved on each turn in the US and Iran talks for weeks, because the price carries a risk premium for the strait. A public statement from the president that new strikes are highly unlikely takes part of that premium out at the open. It does not remove it. The shipping reports from the strait, and Iran's warning of retaliation, are the reason traders did not push prices down further in the first hours.

What happens next turns on the talks themselves. Trump tied his answer to Iran signing what he called a very strong agreement. If the talks stall, the same premium can return in a single session, as it has before.

This report is news coverage of a market move. It is not financial advice. Readers should do their own due diligence before making any investment decision.

Key numbers

Brent: $97.67 a barrel, down 64 cents. WTI: $90.51 a barrel, down 35 cents. Brent's early fall: more than $1 a barrel at the low point of the opening move, according to Reuters.