Brazil Votes in Tight Presidential Runoff Between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro

Brazilians vote on Sunday, October 25, 2026, in a presidential runoff between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Polling stations were scheduled to open at 8 a.m. Brasilia time and close at 5 p.m. The Superior Electoral Court, known as the TSE, plans to begin publishing the count at 5 p.m., as results arrive from electronic voting machines.

A first round that settled nothing

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, led the first round on October 4, 2026. The TSE figures reported by MercoPress gave him 47.03 percent of valid votes and Lula 45.16 percent. Neither reached the majority needed to win outright, so the race moved to a runoff. The Guardian reported that the gap was the narrowest ever recorded in a Brazilian first round.

Reuters noted that no candidate has ever won the Brazilian presidency after finishing second in the first round. Lula is seeking a fourth term. Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who governed from 2019 to 2022.

Final polls pointed to a dead heat

Datafolha surveyed 4,050 people from October 23 to October 24 and put Bolsonaro at 48 percent and Lula at 47 percent, with a margin of error of 2 points. CNT/MDA surveyed 2,032 people from October 21 to October 23 and put Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45.0 percent, with a margin of error of 2.2 points. A Reuters roundup on October 24 said the candidates were about even, with Lula closing the gap in the last days.

A campaign fought over crime, prices and the past

Reuters reported that the race was dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of United States meddling, which Washington denies. It was also shaped by Jair Bolsonaro's 2025 conviction for plotting a coup after he lost the 2022 election to Lula. The former president is serving a 27-year sentence, and Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to free his father if elected.

President Donald Trump called the case a witch hunt and imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazil in 2025, in a decision explicitly linked to the trial. Many of those tariffs were later watered down, but Trump imposed new levies this year. Lula cast the Trump administration's closeness to the Bolsonaro family as an attempt to sway the election, and labelled the tariffs as bullying.

Reuters reported that inequality and unemployment have fallen under Lula, but he has struggled with voters facing high living costs and heavy household debt. Gang violence also weighs on voters. Bolsonaro promised a heavy-handed approach to crime, including maximum-security jails and chemical castration for serious sexual offences.

Election day, and what happens next

More than 158 million people are eligible to vote, and voting is mandatory. About 33 million eligible voters did not vote in the first round, and both campaigns worked to mobilise them. On Saturday, October 24, Lula held a large rally on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro campaigned in Belo Horizonte, capital of Minas Gerais, a state the BBC and The Guardian describe as decisive.

Because Brazil votes electronically, the count should take shape within hours of polls closing, on the TSE results portal and its Resultados app. A first update will not settle a race this close.