Alaska Senate Race Too Close to Call, Peltola Leads by 626

Updated 14:21 UTC, November 4

The lead has changed again. Democrat Mary Peltola now leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 626 votes in the latest unofficial count, 102,701 first-choice votes, or 48.02 percent, to 102,075, or 47.73 percent, according to figures reported by The Alaska Story from the state Division of Elections, with 394 of 401 precincts reporting. The Associated Press count shows the same totals and still lists the race as too early to call. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. drew 3,583 first-choice votes, or 1.68 percent, and Gerald Heikes drew 4,821, or 2.25 percent. Absentee ballots can still arrive in the coming days, and the Division of Elections plans to release official ranked-choice tabulations on November 18. No candidate holds a first-choice majority, so the ranked-choice count is expected to decide the seat.

Alaska's Senate race will take weeks to settle. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan led Democrat Mary Peltola by 1,677 votes on Wednesday morning, 100,751 to 99,074, in the Associated Press count, with 72.21 percent of precincts reporting and an estimated 72.41 percent of the vote counted. The AP listed the race as too early to call.

A third candidate shares the incumbent's name. Daniel Sullivan, listed by the AP separately from Sen. Dan Sullivan, had 3,448 votes. The Times reported the same shape of race on Wednesday morning, with Sullivan at 48.5 percent and Peltola at 47.7 percent with 72.4 percent of votes counted.

The lead has already flipped once

Peltola led the early returns. The Homer Independent Press reported that at 10 p.m. on Tuesday, with nearly 70 percent of precincts counted, Sen. Dan S. Sullivan had moved in front with 97,411 votes, or 48.59 percent, to Peltola's 94,941 votes, or 47.36 percent. The same count gave Gerald Heikes 4,177 votes and Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher from Petersburg, 3,303 votes.

Sullivan warned his supporters not to expect a quick answer. He said they faced a long night and probably some long weeks, as his campaign waited on rural and mailed ballots.

The second Sullivan

The other Sullivan on the ballot drew national attention before election day. A federal judge in Alaska dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit on Sunday, November 1, that had sought to pause certification of the race. The suit argued that voters could be confused by a second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the ballot, the Homer Independent Press reported. The administration has appealed, according to reporting on the case. Peltola, a former member of the U.S. House, is trying to return to Washington as a senator.

Why it matters and what happens next

Control of the Senate no longer rests on Alaska. Democrats won both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, so this race decides the size of their majority, not its existence. Alaska still has ballots coming in. The state accepts mailed ballots for 10 days after election day, and for 15 days from overseas voters. If no candidate tops 50 percent of first choices, the state runs a ranked choice tabulation on November 18. The Homer Independent Press, citing the Alaska Beacon, reported that official results are expected on November 25.